Buy High, Sell Low?

There's one thing that I truly suck at doing, and it worries me. OK, I suck at plenty of things, including hitting, throwing, or dribbling a ball of any kind, writing, and communicating effectively, but this particular skill is one that can have a serious impact on my future.

The skill? Predicting the stock market. Unfortunately, that's a skill that is seriously important for a lot of people anymore, especially considering that company-sponsored pension plans are well on their way to extinction and Social Security is in "crisis". Pretty much my entire retirement is in my hands. I can and do invest as much as I can in a 401(k) plan - for the most part, blindly putting money into a few index funds and crossing my fingers hoping that the money will grow like a weed.

But I've also made a few attempts over the years to invest some money in a few stocks just on my own. I've never put too much money into stocks, but I'd like to think that I could supplement my retirement by doing so. It's not working out all that well, though.

I had an opportunity a few years ago to invest in my company's stock at the IPO price. Since that occurred just before the tech bubble burst, I put as much money into the stock as I thought I could reasonably afford then sat back and expected to become a gazillionaire in a week or two.

Believe it or not, that never quite happened. As a matter of fact, by the time the mandatory holding period had ended, and I was free to actually sell or trade my shares, they were only worth a fraction of their original value. So, I breathed a heavy sigh and figured I'd just sit on the stock until it bounced back. It's never even come close to bouncing all the way back, but it has bounced around a few times at values high enough to make me consider selling, taking my money (and my tax write off), and doing something more sane with the money.

The only problem is that I can't ever figure out when the price is at a short-term peak value. I watch the stock price everyday, and I get excited when I see it move substantially up over some time period. I start thinking about selling it, I get this close to actually doing so, and then it plummets even faster than it went up. Once it begins to plummet, I lose all interest in selling since I then know that I'll be losing even more money than I would have had I sold it a few days earlier. I sit back again and swear that the next time it spikes, I'm selling no matter what.

The only problem is, I never do actually sell.

Probably someday when I'm 85 years old, I'll still be watching the stock price and still cursing myself out because I missed yet another opportunity to sell. The stock market is apparently not for indecisive people. Or is it? I really can't decide.

Comments

[Scott-O-Rama]

I stay as far away from the stock market as possible. I'll leave that sort of thing to the experts.